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Overview
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The scenario includes both manual capturing of sales forecast data for a specific business unit and population the sales forecast with the data calculated by the statistical model. The sales forecast data captured this way must be further checked, consolidated at the enterprise level, adjusted taking into account company-specific and other parameters not taken into account in the data calculated by the statistical models. Aggregation levels of forecast data depend on business needs. Typically, the product group and market are used on the aggregation level. Sometimes, instead of product groups, the item of product is used as a level of aggregation; instead of the market, the regions, countries, and even individual customers. The rules for aggregation and consolidation, as well as the planning horizons, must be aligned with operational and financial planning. As external sources of information, direct information from customers or general market information can be considered. As internal sources of information, you can consider past period actual sales or/and past period sales forecasts. |
External demand planning flowchart
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Demand Planning
Demand Planning is the planning discipline which generates planned quantities sold for each product group per market based on external and internal information sources.
Demand Planning is often done as manual forecast cascading throughout the Sales organization and/or supported by statistical forecast algorithms based on historical data. Typically it is conducted Business Unit by Business Unit.
The planned demands are basis for the master planning. As part of S&OP master planning also provides feedback on realistic/feasible quantities back to Demand Planning.
Forecast Accuracy is typically used as main KPI to measure the quality of demand planning.
Manual sales forecast scenario describes the flow in case the demand planning is conducted by manual sales forecast for a specific business unit.
Aggregation levels might differ depending on business need. Instead of product groups the aggregation level might also be single products and instead of markets it might be regions, countries or single customers.
The aggregation and consolidation rules and also the planning horizons need to be aligned with other planning disciplines. This task and the orchestration of the different planning disciplines is often considered as Sales & Operations Planning.
As external information sources direct knowledge from customers or general market information might be considered. As internal information sources information from Lead-to-Opportunity, Design-to-Deploy or from After Sales & Services could be considered.
It is highly recommended to also address the impact of poor forecast accuracy along the supply chain and in financial terms.
Plan scenario
Plan profile
Бюджеты должны вестись от бизнес-целей предприятия. Бюджеты - это целеобразование, к чему предприятие должно прийти к концу года, каких результатов оно должно достигнуть, какое финансовое состояние, какой должна быть доходность бизнеса и пр.
Данные бюджетов и планов не должны противоречить друг другу.
Бюджеты должны постоянно обновляться. Если происходят изменения, необходимо пересмотреть и пересчитать бюджеты, установить себе новые цели.
Процессы планирования и бюджетирования должны быть хорошо организованы, для своевременного расчета целевых показателей
В настройки:
Статьи бюджетирования - это справочник, заполняемы предприятием
- классификатор, по которым можно задать плановый “оборот” - плановый объем продаж
- аналитика (разрезы аналитические) статьи - клиенты, товары
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How to prepare sales forecast
How to conduct forecasting
How to align forecast
Links to User Guide
- Review figures and variances of last period sales forecast
- Maintain scenarios and plan profiles for demand planning
- Maintain distribution standards of product categories
- Maintain seasonal indexes
- Schedule and follow up planning process
- Capture sales forecasts for business units manually
- Populate sales forecast for business unit with statistics
- Consolidate sales forecast by business units
- Adjust sales forecast for capital projects
- Adjust sales forecast for marketing activities
- Adjust sales forecast for R&D activities
- Distribute sales forecasts from category to item level
- Distribute sales forecast by periods based on seasonal indexes
- Calculate sales revenue forecast and align it with budgets
- Release demand plans
- Align demand plan with master planning decisions
Links to Setup Guide
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